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Brazil's presidential election has taken a dramatic turn. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is now tied with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the most recent polls and prediction markets, reported on by Bloomberg, ahead of the first round of voting on October 4.
According to AtlasIntel (commissioned by Bloomberg), the first pollster to register a lead by Senator Flávio, the left-wing incumbent is now trailing the right-wing senator by 46.4% to 46.2% in its latest survey. PoderData/Aya's forecast of the two candidates in a simulated runoff for the first round puts Flávio at 47% and Lula at 45%. A variety of prediction markets — including Polymarket — now price both candidates at around 49% in the first round, effectively a coin flip.
A few weeks ago, Lula da Silva held a comfortable lead over his opponents. However, a deepening institutional crisis at the country's Supreme Court has brought him down a peg or two in a matter of weeks. The dispute between two of the Supreme Court justices has spawned multiple conflicting decisions, the cancellation of a scheduled plenary session and a forthcoming emergency hearing to be held on September 15.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 44, is the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was banned from running for the 2026 election. As a current member of the Brazilian Senate representing the state of Rio de Janeiro, Flávio has gained a large following and inherited the name of his famous father among voters, especially in South Florida where Brazilian expats voted for the elder Bolsonaro in the 2022 election roughly 4-1. The number of overseas voters registering for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election has hit a record high, which could influence the final results in a close contest.
While the incumbent president can boast of solid economic indicators and a program of massive social spending, the crisis in the Supreme Court, the rise in inflation and the influence of the Bolsonaro family on the right wing of the country are the factors that are making this election highly competitive.
The Flávio Bolsonaro campaign held a major rally in the city of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, where the candidate received the city's "Citizen of Honor" medal on September 9. The city of Juiz de Fora is where Flávio's father was stabbed with a knife during the 2018 presidential election campaign.
Brazil's first round of the presidential election takes place on October 4, 2026. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, a second round will take place on October 25, 2026.
