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Doral, Florida – Miami has always been a city of residential real estate booms and busts. As J.P. Morgan observed, markets fluctuate. See article. Three world-historical events have profoundly influenced the influx of people moving to Miami:
1. Air Conditioning (1957): The commercialization of air conditioning made it possible to work in the tropics at the same pace as in temperate regions.
2. Cuban Communist Revolution (1959): The rise of communism in Cuba established a foothold in the Americas for a foreign ideology and imperial power—Russia. This violated the Monroe Doctrine, which U.S. administrations starting with President Kennedy chose to ignore. Only now is President Trump reasserting this essential principle of American national defense. As a result of Cuba’s communist regime, other totalitarian governments have since taken root in Venezuela and Nicaragua, while communist-leaning governments have emerged in Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, and beyond. Miami-Dade County’s population is now 70% Latino, driven largely by immigration from Latin America to escape communism. These refugees stand as living evidence of communism’s failure.
3. Election of President Obama (2008): Obama’s presidency accelerated the rise of progressive socialist governments in the United States. This trend continues today, with the likely election of a Democratic Socialist jihadist as Mayor of New York City. Of course, democratic socialism is an oxymoron, yet voters keep embracing it—from Venezuela to New York. At the same time, many Americans have been “voting with their feet,” leaving Blue States for Florida and other Red States. This migration has fueled sharp increases in Miami’s residential real estate demand over the past five to ten years.
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Miami Risk
Banks today rank Miami as the global city with the most unsustainable residential real estate prices, driven by several local factors:
1. High property insurance costs, largely due to the insurance industry’s grip on the state legislature.
2. Steep condominium and homeowners’ association fees, since much of Miami’s housing stock is not detached single-family homes.
3. Elevated mortgage interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve’s politically driven refusal to cut rates.
4. Rising property taxes, even without millage rate hikes, because of higher property valuations—an example of government taxing unrealized gains.
5. State regulatory reforms requiring older condominiums to levy new assessments for deferred maintenance.
6. A slow, cumbersome city permitting process for new construction.
7. International investors sheltering assets in Miami real estate, largely unaffected by local market conditions.
Markets Stalled
Markets fluctuate—and in 2025, Miami is in a buyer’s market. Homes are staying on the market longer, and price cuts are becoming more common. This follows a period of explosive growth:
1. Over the last 15 years, Miami’s inflation-adjusted home prices have risen faster than in any other global city.
2. Of 50 major U.S. metro areas, Miami now has the longest listing times.
3. Average time on market has stretched to nearly three months, up from two months last year, leading many sellers to withdraw their listings.
4. The average selling price dropped to $595,000 in July 2025, down from $640,000 the year before.
Continuing Demand
Despite current headwinds, Miami remains an attractive destination. Banks err when they judge sustainability solely on local incomes—Miami is a global city attracting buyers worldwide:
1. Housing remains cheaper than in New York or Los Angeles.
2. The real displacement is among local residents, who increasingly cannot afford to stay. Affordability is a central issue in this year’s Miami mayoral race.
3. The likely election of Mayor Mamdani in New York City next month may accelerate migration to Miami, adding to demand.
4. Miami enjoys a major tax advantage—no city income tax and no state income tax—unlike New York, Los Angeles and other world cities.
5. Miami’s coastal location and vibrant beaches remain a powerful draw.
An economist formerly at Florida Atlantic University predicts the market will correct in the coming months but not collapse. He expects properties near the beach and waterfront to remain the most volatile.
