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Est. 2022 ·
A CDM Site
The Miami Independent Logo
Est. 2022 ·
A CDM Site

Tariffs Up, Tariffs Down: Step Off That Roller Coaster And Be Completely Alone

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It was a tough week, to say the least: White Lotus ended in a massacre (as it always does), and the world is unsettled (as it always is). Tariffs had come, stayed for a while, and then somewhat receded. Thus, I wondered how they (the tariffs, not the White Lotus's stylish carnage) would affect the artificial intelligence (AI)market. It is sad to say, but stocks in AI companies were among the biggest losers after President Trump announced the new tariffs.

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So, I asked my AI tool (who else?) how he felt about that. Dryly, he answered -as if I had asked the wrong question at the wrong time- with a long list of classic Greek tragedy grievances. Well, it is understandable; he was having a bad day.

To begin with, he pointed out that AI systems often rely on high-performance hardware like GPUs, chips, and servers. Then, suppose tariffs are placed on components (like semiconductors, circuit boards, or even rare earth metals). In that case, costs can rise for AI-strap-bing servers, tech companies manufacturing their hardware (e.g., Nvidia, AMD), and cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud), who may pass costs down to users. Too bad. And more was in store: chips, chips are the battleground, my AI assistant darkly added, because the most direct impact is on semiconductors.

At this point, I left my pessimistic AI assistant - time to rely upon human research. Tariffs tag chips, that much is true, but the chips themselves, the key computing hardware inside AI data centers, are exempt from Mr. Trump’s tariffs—but only if they are imported to the U.S. as standalone products. However, most chips are not imported into the U.S. as raw materials; they arrive packaged inside products like servers, which are subject to tariffs.

Regarding data centers, the tariffs will make building AI data centers much more expensive, both because AI servers are largely imported and will face tariffs, at least until supply chains can be rejigged, and because much of the other equipment in data centers, like the cooling and power infrastructure, is imported as well,” says Chris Miller, author of Chip War. Besides, construction materials and computer parts are just some of the costs that are likely to increase because of the tariffs. Hence, Microsoft is already slowing data center construction across the globe, including a $1 billion project in Ohio. Finally, Key AI players will likely use tariffs as an excuse to moderate spending- a nice excuse to refrain from the free, crazy-like overspending they are fond of.

It is too soon to make predictions, but this sort of tariff cold war may set a new trading order. However, at the end of the day, what is true is that AI products could only be more necessary - or addictive - with or without tariffs. Regarding The White Lotus, a new season surely will come: with or without tariffs, posh people keep vacationing.

          

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Martín Francisco Elizalde

Martin Elizalde is an Argentine lawyer based in Buenos Aires. His areas of practice include forensic analysis, cyber security and artificial intelligence.
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