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Most are aware of the Trump’s threatened 50% tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1st. A copy of the official July 9th letter was posted on Truth Social; what made it different than that day’s plethora of trade deals was its political, instead of economic, thrust.

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Indeed, as legacy media was quick to point out, the U.S. runs a trade surplus, not a deficit, with Brazil. Yet this is despite the fact that Brazil is one of the most protectionist economies on earth, with crippling 100% tariffs, for instance, on all foreign car imports. (The original justification decades ago was to allow Brazilian industry to develop; instead it has become a political protection racket.) So on the basis of trade fairness, a hefty U.S. tariff is clearly warranted.

But what legacy media missed was that Trump’s Truth was among the first to give primarily political justification to the new tariff rate.

The first paragraph is all about ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, the brilliant populist (arguably the most intelligent Western leader during Covid, bar none), who is the object of even more punishing lawfare than was directed against Trump. Writing about his trial, Trump points out “It is a witch hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!!”

His second paragraph turns from the individual to the general, criticizing “Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections,” a swipe at both the 2022 stolen presidential election and the current muzzling of Bolsonaro in next year’s race, “and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans,” pointing out that Brazil’s radical Supreme Court “has issued hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market.”

Only in the third paragraph does Trump address Brazil’s heavily lopsided trading regime.

Trump’s broadside is nothing short of ground-breaking and tremendously consequential.

Since the stolen 2022 Presidential election in Brazil, Trump is the first global leader to point out the country’s precipitous fall into a full-fledged leftist dictatorship (here, largely through a Communist Supreme Court). Not only has he brought the world’s attention to this massive human rights and political disaster, but has legitimized other country’s following his lead in criticizing it.

This, alone, is a major blow to the forces of evil in our hemisphere, akin to Reagan’s characterization of the “Evil Empire” during the Cold War.

And, make no mistake, the Western Hemisphere is under grave and constant attack, pointedly from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Brazil, by far the largest Latin American economy and country, is the key to the region. China replaced the U.S. as both the largest exporter to and importer from the country in 2009 (a position the U.S. had held since 1930), and currently supplies 26% of Brazilian imports. (Some sources say China imports nearly 32% of Brazil’s exports, comprising iron ore, oil and agricultural products, compared to the U.S. importing more manufactured goods such as aircraft and machinery.)

Countless Brazilians express concerns about the CCP’s growing economic control and its influence in the administration of the convicted criminal Lula – who was sprung from prison by the corrupt Supreme Court in order to run as its mascot in the 2022 elections.

Lula, a leftist wind-bag if there ever was one, has already blustered away about the country’s “independent institutions and [it] will not accept any form of tutelage” and is promising “reciprocal tariffs,” despite Trump’s threat that any such response will automatically be added to U.S. tariff rates – as occurred in the China-U.S. trade spat, until China bowed to negotiations.

So here’s the rub: the criminal Brazilian regime has two options, either negotiate with Trump and make substantial concessions, or bring on an economic recession so deep that it risks civil war.

All Communist governments make an implicit bargain with their subjects: give up all your freedoms and, in exchange, we will provide you with economic opportunity and growth. When economic growth reverses sharply, the deal is broken and watch out for rebellion.

There are already signs of economic and political chaos resulting from Lula’s blustering. Industrial insiders tell me that manufacturing firms which don’t even export heavily to the U.S. (roughly 10% of all exports are sold there) are in panic over the coming upheaval starting on August 1st. If Lula follows through on his “reciprocal” rates, Trump could easily raise the U.S.’s to 100% or higher, effectively ending all imports into the U.S. Not only will unemployment skyrocket, but Brazil’s current recession (don’t believe the manipulated official statistics) could turn into the worst depression in a century.

On the political side, there are also signs of turmoil. The Brazilian Congress – which somehow turned decidedly conservative the year of the presidential steal and even more so during last year’s midterms – last week resurrected the possibility of impeachment proceedings against Lula (“Squid,” in Portuguese). The theory is that the Vice President, Geraldo Alckman (the once “centrist” governor of São Paulo state) would be more capable to negotiate with Trump.

Over last weekend, Secretary of State Rubio revoked all visas for Brazil’s Chief Justice, a number of his radical associates, and many of their family members. The wife of a Brazilian pastor related to me this was the best news in ages.

While some Brazilian colleagues are concerned that vast swaths of innocent Brazilians will bear the brunt of this impending Cold War between the U.S. and Brazil, and that state-controlled media propaganda is already turning low-information Brazilians against the U.S., others admit that the country’s internal situation is so dire that only external pressure, from someone like Trump, can save it from utter destruction. Their main concern: that Trump will not stay the course, maintaining the 50%+ tariffs until major political concessions are made.

Bolsonaro warned in the last rigged election that Brazil could turn into another Venezuela. Now it is well down that path, with economic destruction and a massive censorship regime which has imprisoned hundreds of political prisoners and no doubt sent hundreds of others fleeing into exile.

As a journalist who cares deeply about Brazil (see my article written over two years ago titled “Brazil’s Best, Great Hope is…US"), I am grateful that the current U.S. administration is not only returning its focus to our hemisphere, but has engaged with the free-fall of Brazil and may be pivotal in the nation’s saving.

Dick Borden (a pseudonym) is a Brazilanist who has published numerous articles and a book on Brazil, as well as lectured on the country to various audiences, including the Brazilian Chamber of Commerce in New York City and to Brazilian diplomats. A resident of Florida, he has also lived in Brazil at several undisclosed locations.